Key Takeaways
- Import volumes are up so far in 2025 as buyers increased orders to beat tariff costs.
- Tthese levels are expected to drop off over the rest of the year as tariffs take hold, with the National Retail Federation projecting cargo volumes to down 5.6% in 2025.
- While tariffs are expected to slow imports, volumes in the second half of the year are also expected to drop due to elevated buying last year around the dock workers’ strike in the U.S.
While tariffs haven’t slowed shipping so far this year, a new forecast projects that they will lead to a drop in imports in the second half of 2025.
Cargo volumes coming coming into the U.S. are seen dropping by 5.6% in 2025 as tariffs on foreign imports take hold, according to the monthly shipping report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves.”
Accelerated purchases in the second half of last year associated with port strikes may also weigh on the year-over-year comparison, the report said.
Imports Higher So Far in 2025 as Buyers Rush to Beat Tariffs
Cargo volumes in the first half of 2025 were higher by 3.6% compared with the prior year, according to the report.
Buyers accelerated imports after Trumps “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April, to beat paying higher prices on those goods, driving import levels higher. The report also showed that July import data is expected to remain elevated ahead of tariff deadlines.
However, several tariffs will take effect in the year’s second half, including the slate of levies initiated on Aug. 7, which the report said would likely drive down shipping volumes.
“Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand.”
The East and Gulf coast port strikes in October 2024 are also expected to have an impact on the 2025 data. While the strikes only lasted a few days, importers hurried orders ahead of them, boosting shipping volumes in the back half of 2024.
Now, when compared with those elevated numbers from last year, the report said that import cargo volumes for the last four months of 2025 will be significantly lower.
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