Key Takeaways
- Economists estimate that the U.S. labor market cooled in June, with the consensus forecast showing that employers likely added 110,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in May.
- The unemployment rate for June is expected to come in at 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021 though still relatively low by historic standards.
- Uncertainty about tariffs has dragged down the job market. Businesses have said they’re slowing down hiring and expansion because they don’t know what trade policy will be in the long run.
The job market may not be crashing, but it’s grinding slower.
A highly anticipated report on job growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thursday is likely to show U.S. employers added 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
The unemployment rate for June is expected to come in at 4.3%,up from 4.2% in May and its highest level since October 2021, though still relatively low by historic standards.
If the report matches expectations, the slowdown would be one of the early signs in hard data of how President Donald Trumps unprecedented tariff campaign is affecting the economy. Forecasters expect unemployment and inflation to rise in the summer as tariffs raise prices and discourage business. Businesses have said in surveys that they have slowed hiring because theyre uncertain what tariff policies will be in the long run.
Early data suggests the slowdown could be sharp, according to economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, who analyzed data from private payroll provider Homebase, among other sources.
“Signs that payroll growth is losing momentum are coming in thick and fast,” Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a commentary. Pantheon expects job growth of 100,000, below the consensus forecast.
Data released Wednesday by payroll provider ADPshowed private-sector employment declined by 33,000 in June, compared with the increase of about 100,000 that economists had expected.
“The ADP report increased the odds of a downside surprise in Thursday’s nonfarm payroll release,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.
UPDATE—July 2, 2025: This article has been updated with information about the ADP private sector payrolls report released on Wednesday.
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