Key Takeaways
- The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting Tuesday.
- The Fed is widely expected to keep its key interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, the same as it has been since December.
- President Donald Trump has demanded the Fed cut rates, but officials have resisted doing so, partly out of concern that Trump’s tariffs will push up inflation.
The Federal Reserves two-day monetary policy meeting kicked off Tuesday, as financial markets await clues about the central banks appetite for interest rate cuts in the coming months.
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are deliberating over monetary policy and are scheduled to release their decision about their key federal funds rate after the meeting at 2 p.m. Eastern Time Won ednesday. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
Here’s what to know about the two-day meeting.
Don’t Expect Lower Borrowing Costs
Fed officials are widely expected to hold the key fed funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, the same as its been since December.
Policymakers consider this rate high enough to put upward pressure on interest rates for all kinds of loans. The high rates are designed to discourage borrowing and spending, and slow down the economy in an effort to push inflation down to the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate.
However, the decision of the Fed’s 12-member policy committee may not be unanimous. Two members have signaled they favor a rate cut this week.
Financial markets are betting that those in favor of a cut will be outvoted, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The tool forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
The FOMC’s policy statement, and Powell’s press conference afterward, could offer clues about how willing the Fed will be to cut rates at its next meeting in September.
The Fed’s Balancing Act Hasn’t Gotten Any Easier
In recent weeks, several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said they’re concerned about the “inflation” side of the central bank’s “dual mandate” to keep inflation low and employment high.
With the unemployment rate at 4.1%, low by historic standards, and core inflation at 2.7%, over the Feds target, many Fed officials favor keeping rates high to stifle inflation, rather than cutting them to boost hiring.
President Donald Trumps trade war complicates the outlook. Fed officials are concerned the sweeping import taxes hes imposed could increasingly be passed on to consumers, igniting inflation.
At the same time, the tariffs could slow down the economy and hurt the job market, risking astate of stagflationand leavingthe Fed with a dilemma about its monetary policy.
The Fed Is Under Pressure To Cut Rates Soon
Trump has repeatedly demanded that the Fed lower interest rates and has even threatened to fire Powell for not doing so.
Trumps pressure campaign against Powell has included insults, accusations of cost overruns in a renovation project at the Feds Washington headquarters, and threats to announce the next Fed chair early. Trump wants the Fed to cut rates iso that he federal governments interest payments on the national debt are lower.
Trumps demands have raised questions about the central banks independence. The Fed is supposed to make policy decisions based on economic considerations rather than political ones.
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